Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c92c11e55de11a4ef309dcb4005d00666eb7ef310c941c9b35aab190ca12bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 71c | 1,048$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 414$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 255.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 78c | 244.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 37c | 227.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 40c | 222.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 205.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 195.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 148.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 146.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 145.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 114.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 107$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 105.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 39c | 103.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 102.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 56c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 15c | 96.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 43c | 95.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 68c | 86.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 76c | 68.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 66.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 26c | 61.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 56.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 55.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 64c | 50.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 69c | 50.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed No | 61c | 45.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 43.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 42.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 42c | 39.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…9a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed Yes | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked No | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…1986backed Yes | 42c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 55c | 24.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 60c | 22.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 17.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.