MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21d2549a5678ab62e0ad68680b455f422347f712add0e9d2cf96330400baeb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 1,774$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.81 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 950.14$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 526.41$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 279.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 265.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 225.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 113$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 113$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…0838backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 91.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 58.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 43.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 33.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…929fbacked San Diego Padres | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.