MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635db1ae6650aac64d32fc654781e0531e3bf6a283de0dd4f0708ef85b930758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 1,559$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 817.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 609.88$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 274.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 204$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 199.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 156$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 153.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 119.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 105.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 91.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 81.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 80.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 75.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 70.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 66.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 65.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 59.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 58.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 50.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 45.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 44.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 42.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…5d2bbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ab…7d30backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 33.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 31.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 30.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…558dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 30.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 25.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.