MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4603fbdebcc4f71d0854d8ce7384e4930306ec7066c20fc509d8e740b0fd5c05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 15,983$5,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,595.45 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 13,757$8,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,388.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 3,551$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 3,424$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 3,205$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 2,044$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.81 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 1,155$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,014$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 933.85$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.85 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 837.99$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.53 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 657.86$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 418.01$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 409.76$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.61 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 401.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 303.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 293.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 222.9$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 192.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 118.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 118.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 96.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 86.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 72.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 63.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 57.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 46.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 33.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.