Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2495a6ff822abb2986d5aef4f4e7872f127ac3ebd0364a073edef665572d2e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,731$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.13 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Liquid | 76c | 656.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 540.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 450.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid | 67c | 420.58$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.79 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 274.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…630dbacked Team Liquid | 77c | 270.01$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 260$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Liquid | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 199.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Team Liquid | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…3ad0backed Team Liquid | 76c | 123.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 121.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 103.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 85.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Team Liquid | 76c | 76.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…df94backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Liquid | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Liquid | 72c | 22.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Team Liquid | 75c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Team Liquid | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.