Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81bd12eccac397d9e2c4b75e205e1e8e12a586b142963c8e24dd0445d577f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 6,824$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.86 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 5,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 0c | 4,490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Team Liquid | 80c | 3,432$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.57 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 3,055$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.11 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 2,776$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 2,628$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 2,508$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed Nigma Galaxy | 8c | 2,480$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 1,951$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Team Liquid | 78c | 1,827$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.92 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 1,421$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 1,200$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 875.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 857.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 705.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 600.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 538.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 460.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid | 79c | 350.72$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 316$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 10c | 304.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Team Liquid | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 279$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d85dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 274.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 260.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 249.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 244.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 240$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 215.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…a312backed Nigma Galaxy | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 167.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Team Liquid | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Team Liquid | 80c | 132.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Team Liquid | 79c | 73.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Team Liquid | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Team Liquid | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…c226backed Team Liquid | 68c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.