Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24d48438fbe951ab42153541e4b5e2ea6ecd304dbff96f2c15ad8b1aaadf8de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 75c | 398.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 21c | 356.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 345.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 69c | 289.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 231.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 216$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 207.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 188.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 178.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 124.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 109$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 27c | 106.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 105.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 100.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 77.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 22c | 68.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 64.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…5e37backed Yes | 24c | 61.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 78c | 60.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 45.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 38.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…bcc3backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…91adbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 35.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 79c | 22.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 79c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.