Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe90960175c3da01b9bf2b8c8a5ed457424b154a7d9ee68b1cdcc2b608591c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 335.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 5c | 290.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 261.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 154.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 138.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 136.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 73c | 132$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 65c | 129.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 13c | 126.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 40c | 120.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 33c | 118.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 101.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 88.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 38c | 85.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 80.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 76.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 38c | 73.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 27c | 72.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 17c | 66.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 20c | 65.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 61.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 21c | 60.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 35c | 56.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 46.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 65c | 45.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 70c | 45.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 66c | 45.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 41.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 28c | 38.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…8ce3backed Yes | 40c | 37.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 75c | 35.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 49c | 34.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 34.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 33.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 33.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 29.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 24.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 23.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 21.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.