Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic, Qualification: Veronika Erjavec vs Sofia Costoulas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24ddcb7819a9f7ec32b336dd96592a2c15ef78cb155dac8e1cb5fa37b1ad71e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Costoulasof Erjavec, Costoulas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Erjavec | 27c | 2,764$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.61 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Costoulas | 78c | 2,114$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.12 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Costoulas | 54c | 2,000$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.55 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Erjavec | 14c | 1,125$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Costoulas | 75c | 927.29$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.29 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Erjavec | 27c | 747.48$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Erjavec | 20c | 622.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Costoulas | 60c | 581.7$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.77 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Erjavec | 46c | 549.24$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Erjavec | 25c | 503.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Costoulas | 65c | 456.13$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.93 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Costoulas | 51c | 388.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.88 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Erjavec | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Erjavec | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Erjavec | 27c | 260.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Erjavec | 29c | 133.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Erjavec | 53c | 125.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Costoulas | 79c | 117.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Costoulas | 62c | 105.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 191 | 67%128 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Erjavec | 19c | 103.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Erjavec | 45c | 92.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Costoulas | 72c | 82.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Costoulas | 52c | 67.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Erjavec | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Costoulas | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Costoulas | 47c | 52.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Erjavec | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Costoulas | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Costoulas | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Erjavec | 55c | 45.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Costoulas | 76c | 34.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Costoulas | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Costoulas | 59c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Erjavec | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Erjavec | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ASB Classic, Qualification: Veronika Erjavec vs Sofia Costoulasthis page
- Erjavec vs. Costoulas: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Erjavec vs. Costoulas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.