CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2510be6a179b1a885f427d1e521ff9d274f25643bd2d6db2bf167ade924d7ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof fnatic, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed fnatic | 53c | 17,640$9,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,348.78 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Heroic | 47c | 11,380$5,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,031.45 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Heroic | 62c | 3,511$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.94 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 47c | 2,365$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.79 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed fnatic | 37c | 2,229$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.07 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Heroic | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked fnatic | 56c | 1,771$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic | 56c | 1,546$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.99 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…41a7backed fnatic | 47c | 1,101$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.68 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Heroic | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed fnatic | 42c | 966$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.11 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heroic | 47c | 878.29$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.67 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Heroic | 47c | 874.47$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Heroic | 57c | 704.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.17 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Heroic | 46c | 660.65$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.65 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heroic | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked fnatic | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked fnatic | 51c | 463.55$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed fnatic | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e00…d922backed fnatic | 28c | 417.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed fnatic | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…5ca3backed Heroic | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Heroic | 46c | 346.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…4b40backed Heroic | 59c | 255.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed fnatic | 43c | 245$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…7858backed fnatic | 37c | 238.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed fnatic | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Heroic | 47c | 211.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Heroic | 47c | 190.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1228backed fnatic | 54c | 185.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 137 | 40.9%56 W · 81 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed fnatic | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked fnatic | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 46c | 98.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked fnatic | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed fnatic | 47c | 80.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed58…81f3backed Heroic | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked fnatic | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked fnatic | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…09babacked fnatic | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked fnatic | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Heroic | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…ee04backed fnatic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed fnatic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked fnatic | 46c | 35.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked fnatic | 54c | 32.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.