College Football · resolved market
Marshall vs. Louisiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28f1b32258de33d9d111ca51b91bd950622d8be7f1f65656f87a240679c5f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Marshall, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Marshall | 40c | 10,956$4,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,624.06 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Louisiana | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Louisiana | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Louisiana | 67c | 1,498$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…a74dbacked Louisiana | 69c | 1,475$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Marshall | 34c | 1,227$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.5 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Louisiana | 32c | 1,182$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.93 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Louisiana | 1c | 1,045$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Louisiana | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Louisiana | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Louisiana | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…a0fdbacked Louisiana | 69c | 692.51$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Louisiana | 67c | 499.94$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.96 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Marshall | 31c | 383.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.72 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Marshall | 63c | 313.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Louisiana | 66c | 278.63$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Marshall | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Marshall | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Marshall | 35c | 226.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Louisiana | 64c | 198.48$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Louisiana | 64c | 195.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Louisiana | 16c | 154.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…f186backed Louisiana | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Marshall | 34c | 145.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…14efbacked Marshall | 36c | 101.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Marshall | 31c | 99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…79bbbacked Marshall | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…4510backed Louisiana | 68c | 90.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…59c0backed Louisiana | 69c | 72.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Marshall | 36c | 69.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Marshall | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Louisiana | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Louisiana | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Marshall | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Louisiana | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Louisiana | 65c | 35.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…c5cfbacked Louisiana | 38c | 31.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Louisiana | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Louisiana | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Louisiana | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Marshall | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…817ebacked Louisiana | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Louisiana | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…6c1abacked Louisiana | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Louisiana | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.