Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c58945f2140ada01db9f84e5b2f960efa05b5a4a5e5227ad6760257d75a96b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 79c | 745.88$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 60c | 315.88$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 76c | 273.02$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 44c | 269.21$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.49 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 266.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 46c | 216.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 54c | 209.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 182.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 152.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 148.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 145.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 46c | 131.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 128$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 119.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 112.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 36c | 112.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 73c | 85.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 54c | 72.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 57c | 70.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 33c | 68.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 67.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 56.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 55.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 51.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 46.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 49c | 46.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 39c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 32.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 54c | 29.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 48c | 28.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 22.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 58c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…28b5backed Yes | 58c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 57c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 19.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.