Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump and Machado hug by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf347c8726cf3a4f9efb43ae28c138eb4e982cf7b63a1df86266401f9075cc4ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 1,064$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.17 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a3…b07cbacked Yes | 1c | 669.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 20c | 328.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 171.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 80c | 158.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…98aebacked Yes | 18c | 130.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 117.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 103.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…ffe9backed No | 80c | 80.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…f4adbacked Yes | 25c | 80.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked No | 73c | 39.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 73c | 36.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 71c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…c772backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…adc5backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac1dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed No | 80c | 18.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.