NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34afa72d5855f364b99c719b4068336720ecb5086a551193484f8e71726b5f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Wolvesof Chicago Wolves, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e5…0cadbacked Toronto Marlies | 12c | 1,460$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…d9d6backed Toronto Marlies | 12c | 1,215$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Chicago Wolves | 29c | 1,029$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.28 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Toronto Marlies | 74c | 911$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 844.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.66 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Toronto Marlies | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…9e2dbacked Toronto Marlies | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked Toronto Marlies | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Wolves | 49c | 324.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…33d0backed Toronto Marlies | 8c | 294.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed Toronto Marlies | 8c | 294.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 260.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Toronto Marlies | 55c | 159.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Toronto Marlies | 8c | 147.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago Wolves | 48c | 135$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Wolves | 45c | 130.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Chicago Wolves | 46c | 121.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Toronto Marlies | 54c | 104.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Chicago Wolves | 46c | 71.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed Chicago Wolves | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Chicago Wolves | 45c | 68.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Chicago Wolves | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Wolves | 21c | 58.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Wolves | 31c | 56.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Chicago Wolves | 45c | 56.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…07c2backed Toronto Marlies | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago Wolves | 37c | 50.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Chicago Wolves | 42c | 48.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Toronto Marlies | 68c | 43.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Toronto Marlies | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Chicago Wolves | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chicago Wolves | 49c | 40.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Toronto Marlies | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Wolves | 32c | 32.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Toronto Marlies | 61c | 28.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Marlies | 55c | 28.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe74…3916backed Toronto Marlies | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.