Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3533123e93689ce873da9893e641b1332eb85c891f7703b69168b4741c48b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof Shopify Rebellion Black, Division One
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 61c | 10,150$6,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980 | 524 | 55.2%289 W · 235 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Division One | 39c | 4,589$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.69 | 548 | 51.1%280 W · 268 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Division One | 1c | 2,789$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Division One | 43c | 2,517$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Division One | 40c | 2,034$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.46 | 394 | 42.4%167 W · 227 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Division One | 42c | 1,943$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.92 | 902 | 44.3%400 W · 502 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 78c | 1,934$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.73 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 1,282$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Division One | 5c | 718.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,619 | 45.1%730 W · 889 L | -25.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…7a8fbacked Division One | 57c | 685.78$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked Division One | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Division One | 48c | 421.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…5ef7backed Division One | 13c | 387.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…84a6backed Division One | 46c | 346.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 231 | 51.9%120 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Division One | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 69c | 267.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 351 | 55%193 W · 158 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked Division One | 10c | 202.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Division One | 35c | 199.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Division One | 40c | 176.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 521 | 49.7%259 W · 262 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 165.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 1,386 | 47.3%655 W · 731 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 160.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…cfa7backed Division One | 45c | 148.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Division One | 8c | 138.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%578 W · 740 L | -44.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Division One | 16c | 129.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 107$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Division One | 13c | 106.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Division One | 15c | 86.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 67.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 259 | 61%158 W · 101 L | +22.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…af56backed Division One | 27c | 55.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Division One | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Division One | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 199 | 43.7%87 W · 112 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Division One | 41c | 48.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Division One | 40c | 37.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,748 | 46.2%808 W · 940 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 78c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: SRB (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5)Shopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 1 WinnerDivision One won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.