TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellion Blackof Shopify Rebellion Black, Division One
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black69c47,717$33,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,691.2678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Division One27c45,766$12,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,337.5513651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion Black67c17,500$11,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,818.1652155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Shopify Rebellion Black78c8,711$6,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.7954751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Division One25c7,929$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.1528548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Division One49c5,624$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,740.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Division One29c5,300$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53515431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Division One18c5,206$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.5888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black55c4,282$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.2368949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked Division One17c3,750$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.6110951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…69f7backed Division One31c3,166$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.63444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Division One31c2,911$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.568934.8%31 W · 58 L-11.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Division One37c2,222$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.145251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Division One35c2,071$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+59.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Division One33c1,937$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.9923151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black72c1,621$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.727234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black65c1,444$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.471,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ce…356dbacked Division One48c1,123$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Division One34c1,106$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.6945250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Division One56c1,039$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.6615553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Division One32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32033153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Division One33c952.79$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.441,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Division One30c887.31$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1918457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Division One35c821.83$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Division One29c818.81$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.311,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Division One33c781.42$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2912540.8%51 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black72c726.08$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.4821136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Shopify Rebellion Black63c681.32$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.094957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Division One57c655.64$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.982055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black71c601.65$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.411,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Shopify Rebellion Black61c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2343138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed Division One48c560.91$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed Shopify Rebellion Black80c547.59$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-42.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaf82…91ccbacked Shopify Rebellion Black65c540.81$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.822157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black51c509.06$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Shopify Rebellion Black69c502.53$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.546755.2%37 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Division One14c460.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.682138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9497…ea43backed Division One30c433.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.91656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Shopify Rebellion Black70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5722955%126 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Division One28c413.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.910844.4%48 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed Shopify Rebellion Black45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Division One39c399.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38b7…cfa7backed Division One28c380.84$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.126250%31 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black76c366.36$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.581,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Shopify Rebellion Black43c345.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.067051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black65c336.64$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e48…f025backed Shopify Rebellion Black77c324.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.682254.5%12 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a9b…59eabacked Division One8c324.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Division One28c310$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.812745.7%58 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1599…5432backed Shopify Rebellion Black64c308.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.214946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Shopify Rebellion Black54c306.98$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2126051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Division One30c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion Black67c299.94$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9945033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Shopify Rebellion Black69c298.84$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2835142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed Division One31c296.7$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.851533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Division One31c282.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5734739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed Division One55c275$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2510655.7%59 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Shopify Rebellion Black76c273.38$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.385738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1672…4002backed Division One32c268.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Shopify Rebellion Black62c264.39$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7922352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black74c262.59$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.451,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black62c242.52$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.511,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Division One32c239.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.816241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fb…3d52backed Division One47c236.17$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shopify Rebellion Black64c236.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0323463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03bf…1188backed Shopify Rebellion Black63c231.91$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Shopify Rebellion Black74c231.22$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6670043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Division One31c224.65$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.642733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6330…c828backed Division One24c219.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x205a…682abacked Shopify Rebellion Black63c215.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+117%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Division One31c209.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6542840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…b387backed Division One31c204.22$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.311526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Division One21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Shopify Rebellion Black44c196.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.553435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Shopify Rebellion Black71c174.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.097365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked Shopify Rebellion Black63c171.43$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.432343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Shopify Rebellion Black61c168.79$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.516048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Division One33c164$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5563652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Shopify Rebellion Black64c156.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Shopify Rebellion Black66c152.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.324060%24 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6013…9826backed Shopify Rebellion Black66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8442…9df5backed Shopify Rebellion Black73c148.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.444065%26 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Division One34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f06…3905backed Shopify Rebellion Black51c146.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Shopify Rebellion Black50c134.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2711232.1%36 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black59c133.44$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black62c120.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.814864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Shopify Rebellion Black60c116$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5966438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Division One28c114$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9220248.5%98 W · 104 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Division One34c110.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4484…9defbacked Shopify Rebellion Black63c103.79$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.42060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Division One27c102.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8123055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5fd…137ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black61c99.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Division One33c97.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.318948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d4d…4f6bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black77c97.4$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41553.3%8 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick73cpaid-31.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed Shopify Rebellion Black70c93.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.144663%29 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Shopify Rebellion Black54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f3…8adbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black54c84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.641741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f90…a39fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black68c83.45$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.453357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed Shopify Rebellion Black63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376852.9%36 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.