Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c8de83f1729cc90c23ba9eba177bf2d38064b1b90d4e2fdac4eef15f192409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof Shopify Rebellion Black, Division One
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Division One | 49c | 14,361$6,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,976.69 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 12,031$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,015.41 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed Division One | 26c | 1,936$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 69c | 1,933$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.46 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 1,061$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Division One | 45c | 1,058$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 574.01$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.12 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Division One | 51c | 510.2$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 256 | 60.9%156 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 57c | 434.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 72c | 381.53$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Division One | 16c | 369$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 78c | 340.12$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…5ef7backed Division One | 15c | 271.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Division One | 37c | 203.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 74c | 187.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…0a68backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 74c | 135.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…e3d3backed Division One | 22c | 135.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 133.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…cfa7backed Division One | 47c | 131$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 118.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Division One | 47c | 117.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Division One | 14c | 98.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Division One | 46c | 97.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Division One | 29c | 78.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 70.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Division One | 34c | 65.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…f2e1backed Division One | 31c | 64.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…8b07backed Division One | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 55.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Division One | 36c | 33.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…9defbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 50c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…54fcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: SRB (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5)Shopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 1 WinnerDivision One won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.