Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf37093685282cfa1acaaa18b1c9e876eac4b9fee6df83430f84e95a88abb742c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Yes | 9c | 121,838$10,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,965.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 27c | 95,112$25,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,680.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 73c | 10,454$7,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,830.15 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 10,000$7,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.99 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes | 28c | 9,460$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 7,358$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.78 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 6,000$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 4,752$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.57 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 74c | 3,512$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.1 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 3,049$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.28 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 13c | 2,295$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 1,766$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.81 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…e7d4backed Yes | 27c | 1,648$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…c0c3backed No | 74c | 1,647$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 1,545$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.73 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,440$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.88 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes | 29c | 411.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e29…6477backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…e11cbacked Yes | 8c | 392.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 25c | 384.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…5c5cbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 26c | 299.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 77c | 248.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 27c | 235.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 27c | 219$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc99…86babacked Yes | 19c | 191.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 189.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…d60abacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…d2d8backed No | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 122.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed Yes | 9c | 114.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232e…df94backed Yes | 27c | 90.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…e83bbacked Yes | 13c | 86.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 73c | 80.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…6c8abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…1b94backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Yes | 27c | 43.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…45cabacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…975fbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 73c | 37.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…ecc9backed No | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will AS Roma vs. Inter end in a draw?No won
- Will Inter win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.