Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38eca1fc5fc26a029c6875728f237b585327b8f21b0eb3b47a77a74677ef277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof MOUZ, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked 1win | 74c | 1,032$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.3 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ | 26c | 439.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed MOUZ | 26c | 279.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.32per pick | 47cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed MOUZ | 32c | 217.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked 1win | 68c | 154.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked MOUZ | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…20e0backed 1win | 68c | 152$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed MOUZ | 37c | 134.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed MOUZ | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed 1win | 68c | 73.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed MOUZ | 31c | 57.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…5693backed MOUZ | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed MOUZ | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked 1win | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed 1win | 57c | 30.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A1win won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.