World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40dc667e5bbbe2611250c200beab19ed2253ceece1e355c022ea95239c9c332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 511.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 504.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 427.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 6c | 406.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 13c | 398.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 373$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 332.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 326.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 8c | 314.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 309.48$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 15c | 301.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 272.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 256.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 17c | 249.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 10c | 246.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 7c | 223.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 14c | 221.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 207.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 203.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 189.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 182.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 16c | 182$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 180.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 9c | 179.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 13c | 178$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 171.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 11c | 149.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 9c | 146.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 9c | 145.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 15c | 144.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 123.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 15c | 122.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 113.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 13c | 110.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 109.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 87.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 86.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…a226backed Yes | 14c | 83.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 81.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.