TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf11f…908bbacked No6c1,451$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c937.19$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.793243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No19c844.77$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.783030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No2c478.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.778025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes48c417.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c341.6$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No52c314.96$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7812055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No22c308.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes56c294.37$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.313828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No24c277.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No32c269.55$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes58c262.36$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1511636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c254.82$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c243.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c238$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes74c234.53$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6414842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes52c219.97$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.599020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No11c216.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.844841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No67c205.21$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.629160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes42c203.68$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.675149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c187.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.26330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No18c177.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.96234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c171.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6415036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c169$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c155.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6627521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44f…1ceabacked Yes64c152.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b04…9ef3backed Yes48c145.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No54c144.26$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes43c140.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.231145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c133.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7726355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No12c132.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5214445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c131.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No52c129.42$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.712055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No37c124.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes45c122.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.348038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No61c121.83$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.84645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No56c117.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9713268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c114.91$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9639231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes51c111.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.499337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No51c107.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No57c106.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…e6b1backed No48c104.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No49c103.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.52544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c97.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes35c96.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.581030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes40c95.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.335446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No44c93.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c89.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1118762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c84.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.711,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No61c83.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.382454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No36c83.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9213748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No60c75.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c73.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes31c70.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.788736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No17c70.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6616850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No18c67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7814553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No48c64.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1417952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No63c64.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.872556%14 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No20c64.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.52365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No46c61.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.338856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes33c60.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.571428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.120065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.877561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9811344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.47030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.463063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes43c58.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.264427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c57.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9612238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c57.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9432639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes43c56.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes41c54.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.44633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No75c53.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f86…0b92backed No56c50.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+88.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+159.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No36c48.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3914753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c46$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No67c44.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.527582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No42c43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.092161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No36c42.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.216445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.981369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes50c40.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.243033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.73930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes42c39.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes54c38.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8918158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.