MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41669a8adc1054ff675e829d5ec646b54438d582afba3c3d4fe23bbf4ee1d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Guardians, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians | 44c | 13,020$5,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,685.71 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 60c | 7,813$4,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 45c | 1,896$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.05 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 55c | 1,099$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.64 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 18c | 1,032$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 14c | 690$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds | 53c | 687.74$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.44 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Guardians | 23c | 621.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Guardians | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 46c | 366.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 13c | 325$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Reds | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Guardians | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…1226backed Reds | 56c | 290$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…a15bbacked Guardians | 44c | 290$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 57c | 277.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 17c | 267.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Reds | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Reds | 68c | 236.11$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds | 63c | 211.92$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Guardians | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Reds | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 15c | 104.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Reds | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Guardians | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 47c | 32.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Guardians | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…2d66backed Reds | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.