Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-07-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42bb7d20a9983943ab26393399543f75a37cae6873e6ebbafbd9db8b6174d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b9…775dbacked Yes | 26c | 4,356$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 13c | 2,889$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.11 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 65c | 1,261$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.24 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 735$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 735$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 68c | 735$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 599.97$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 542.59$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.91 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 35c | 452.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 64c | 429.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 75c | 380.2$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 371.68$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 66c | 327$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…f034backed Yes | 30c | 313.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…6deebacked Yes | 32c | 299.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 290.76$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 16c | 212.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 70c | 207.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 35c | 202.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 196.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…7d44backed No | 72c | 194.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…29ccbacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 98.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 27c | 72.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…b11cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…29a1backed No | 70c | 54.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 31c | 50.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Yes | 30c | 46.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Yes | 35c | 37.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 67c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…bd31backed No | 71c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-07-18?this page
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-07-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.