Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf47491b4b21170d400dea06bcd010833f1b6675fa453c05b4b38089ab859562f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked 1win | 56c | 7,035$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.09 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 2,076$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.68 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 2,019$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.26 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 1,735$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.02 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 1,606$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.04 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 54c | 1,313$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.47 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…fa2bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 1,010$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked 1win | 43c | 1,010$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e46dbacked 1win | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked 1win | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed 1win | 50c | 743.78$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.42 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 516.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.84 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed 1win | 23c | 500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 364$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed 1win | 54c | 354.33$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed 1win | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed 1win | 63c | 229.73$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 210.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed 1win | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…9372backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 196.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 40c | 103.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 92.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed 1win | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 42c | 70.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed 1win | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked 1win | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 45.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed 1win | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.