Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc3f26a2b4f9b4b0c85ba89b2d21cc32fdb7b4c2f7ede4cdd18fe1c93f28e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 2,972$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.62 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked 1win | 46c | 2,200$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.99 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 1,702$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.69 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 1,599$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.58 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 1,462$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.51 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed 1win | 45c | 1,440$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.44 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 1,424$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.22 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked 1win | 41c | 1,395$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.92 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 42c | 1,251$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.25 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked 1win | 43c | 1,124$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 1,003$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.33 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 43c | 949.26$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.73 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 46c | 902.71$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.11 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked 1win | 55c | 800$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1win | 41c | 678.93$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.28 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed 1win | 46c | 600.11$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.05 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked 1win | 43c | 588.45$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.54 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 506.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed 1win | 46c | 376$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed 1win | 25c | 340$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1win | 42c | 322.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 319.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed 1win | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 283.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed 1win | 27c | 203.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed 1win | 45c | 203.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed 1win | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…2511backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 170.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 169$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 166.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…df69backed 1win | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d04…7a17backed 1win | 27c | 146$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked 1win | 65c | 133.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 129$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked 1win | 45c | 112.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce7…cc16backed 1win | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed 1win | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 1win | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 96.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed 1win | 47c | 84.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed 1win | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed 1win | 44c | 76.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…d057backed 1win | 21c | 58.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed 1win | 31c | 54.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed 1win | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 52.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked 1win | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…13fdbacked 1win | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed 1win | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…9813backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed 1win | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked 1win | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked 1win | 49c | 39.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 34.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed 1win | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 28.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed 1win | 44c | 27.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 24.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…ec0ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.