Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48e5f496bed01dabadf469d789088720ef6403d8cf1545d1670d97be03f61f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariaof Rybakina, Maria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d1a…e943backed Rybakina | 5c | 2,646$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 215 | 24.7%53 W · 162 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Maria | 49c | 2,174$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.97 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Rybakina | 53c | 2,006$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.51 | 392 | 38.8%152 W · 240 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Maria | 27c | 999.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.98 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Rybakina | 73c | 806.96$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.93 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Maria | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Rybakina | 71c | 313$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.23 | 394 | 52%205 W · 189 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Rybakina | 71c | 209$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maria | 32c | 194.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 9,444 | 44.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L | -249.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rybakina | 17c | 108.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,600 | 48.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L | +10.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maria | 54c | 107.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 6,584 | 54.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L | +286.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Rybakina | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 287 | 51.6%148 W · 139 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Maria | 79c | 98.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Rybakina | 33c | 79.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Rybakina | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Maria | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Maria | 54c | 45.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 2,454 | 50.9%1,248 W · 1,206 L | +83.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…77ebbacked Rybakina | 56c | 35.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rybakina | 64c | 35.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Rybakina | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Rybakina | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Rybakina | 76c | 28.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Rybakina | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Rybakina | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Mariathis page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana MariaElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Maria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Rybakina vs MariaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Maria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.