Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddabb7c1ef7f70a6c205851100975677766747ace6ff0f5d4efb8df729fcd14d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariaof Rybakina, Maria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Rybakina | 61c | 4,942$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Maria | 39c | 2,812$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.31 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Maria | 45c | 1,115$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.34 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Maria | 44c | 1,109$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.31 | 104 | 23.1%24 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Maria | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Maria | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Rybakina | 57c | 541.04$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Maria | 37c | 487.31$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Rybakina | 63c | 476.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 57c | 460.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Rybakina | 56c | 420$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Rybakina | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Maria | 39c | 362.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Rybakina | 45c | 217.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Rybakina | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maria | 50c | 176.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Rybakina | 57c | 172$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Rybakina | 61c | 164.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Maria | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Rybakina | 34c | 153.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Rybakina | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rybakina | 50c | 109.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Rybakina | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Maria | 42c | 92.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 60c | 90.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Rybakina | 28c | 75.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Rybakina | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rybakina | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Maria | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…c783backed Rybakina | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Rybakina | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…76eebacked Rybakina | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Maria | 40c | 38.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Maria | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Maria | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)this page
- Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana MariaElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Maria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs MariaMaria won
- Set 2 Winner: Rybakina vs MariaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.