CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: Rare Atom vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48e7d6115879a4fb10b9ed24783a006afc8663aa26e80f8a80072a094b4d967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Rare Atom, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Rare Atom | 4c | 11,859$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Rare Atom | 2c | 5,082$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Rare Atom | 13c | 2,061$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.94 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Rare Atom | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Rare Atom | 12c | 1,155$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…220ebacked Rare Atom | 15c | 668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Rare Atom | 14c | 572.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Rare Atom | 11c | 464.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Rare Atom | 13c | 423.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Rare Atom | 10c | 412.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Rare Atom | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Rare Atom | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Rare Atom | 13c | 195.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Rare Atom | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Rare Atom | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Rare Atom | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.