TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f3…35e3backed Philadelphia Phillies67c2,820$1,889 inWon+$930.521,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays33c2,228$724 inLost-$724.4512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies71c1,940$1,371 inWon+$569.0411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays32c625$200 inLost-$20013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays22c500$110 inLost-$1109,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Toronto Blue Jays32c457.38$146 inLost-$146.366726.9%18 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Toronto Blue Jays33c335.69$111 inLost-$110.7829354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays31c260.72$81 inLost-$80.8289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Blue Jays33c223.81$74 inLost-$73.8636250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Toronto Blue Jays33c146$48 inLost-$48.181,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b4…87bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies69c144.93$100 inWon+$44.931593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick69cpaid+36.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays31c141.94$44 inLost-$443,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Toronto Blue Jays32c140.63$45 inLost-$451650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays23c81.65$19 inLost-$18.786,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed Philadelphia Phillies69c72.46$50 inWon+$22.464443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f7…a9a9backed Toronto Blue Jays33c57.45$19 inLost-$18.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Philadelphia Phillies68c50$34 inWon+$161,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Philadelphia Phillies68c40$27 inWon+$12.81,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays32c40$13 inLost-$12.877836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…6d43backed Philadelphia Phillies69c28.84$20 inWon+$8.946946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies68c21.62$15 inWon+$6.928,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db0…5b69backed Philadelphia Phillies69c16.58$11 inWon+$5.143834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.