MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fafe0becb263728d0c08e7faa7e1fb9986de24619ed24f7c1c9dccf7daace03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 616.09$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.95 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 404.46$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 285.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 244$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 209.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 202.49$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 178.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 178.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 177.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 167.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 148.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 137.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 78.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 56.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 53.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 49.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…76c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.