South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c2868c474c5876da1a6c176443f1885acf1b33b8eb3595b8e1c70ab6ddce8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 55c | 10,985$6,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940.93 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 7,474$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 44c | 2,211$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.76 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 1,285$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 11c | 1,028$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 32c | 909.73$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 850$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 835.18$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 750.33$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.61 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 5c | 576.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 41c | 417.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 42c | 401.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.63 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 15c | 356.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 311.85$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 5c | 262.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 33c | 251.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 203.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 40c | 133$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Yes | 26c | 96.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 59c | 84.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 32c | 65.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 23c | 55.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 67c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked No | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Yes | 47c | 25.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 56c | 24.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5483…5e9fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.