China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Zhang Shengmin be the next Vice Chair of China’s Central Military Commission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e72c7069c1022ec482accb57a65dfde3e3a136fff63f085a7cf08a62764d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e68…7dccbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…f771backed Yes | 46c | 568.65$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 5c | 211.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…4afcbacked No | 50c | 165$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…5ce8backed No | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…cabebacked No | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…b9bdbacked No | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 116.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…cb26backed Yes | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 61.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 40c | 37.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 58c | 36.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 46c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhang Shengmin be the next Vice Chair of China’s Central Military Commission?this page
- Will Liu Zhenli be the next Vice Chair of China’s Central Military Commission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.