Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f745a805c43ac0ce9f1b66793c33db8276c97229dfbabce080f5d307a19399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Baylor Bears, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Baylor Bears | 8c | 12,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Baylor Bears | 18c | 7,766$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.77 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Baylor Bears | 9c | 5,448$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Baylor Bears | 7c | 1,829$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 1,470$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 1,417$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baylor Bears | 15c | 1,163$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Baylor Bears | 2c | 1,154$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 241 | 21.2%51 W · 190 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +299%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Baylor Bears | 6c | 1,011$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 975.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 857.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Baylor Bears | 8c | 834$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 663.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Baylor Bears | 16c | 634.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Baylor Bears | 12c | 622.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Baylor Bears | 12c | 613.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 599.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Baylor Bears | 18c | 573.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Baylor Bears | 16c | 530$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baylor Bears | 10c | 348.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 339.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Baylor Bears | 22c | 315$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 289.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baylor Bears | 14c | 273.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 216.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baylor Bears | 18c | 212.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5668backed Baylor Bears | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Baylor Bears | 15c | 189.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Baylor Bears | 11c | 182.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baylor Bears | 12c | 178.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Baylor Bears | 7c | 165.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 193 | 32.1%62 W · 131 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…ec34backed Baylor Bears | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Baylor Bears | 9c | 129.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Baylor Bears | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Baylor Bears | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baylor Bears | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Baylor Bears | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Baylor Bears | 16c | 82.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baylor Bears | 14c | 74.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclonesthis page
- Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.