Champions League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-07-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4fece02169d16f03e2d254ef178af583d0d94d6b1b930fc74a9fedec502d7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94bf…ee06backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 15c | 412.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 14c | 304$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 4c | 289.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 13c | 239.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 237.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 23c | 193$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 114.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 15c | 101.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 179 | 7.8%14 W · 165 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 77c | 77.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 19c | 68.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 16c | 68.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…1868backed No | 80c | 19.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 78c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-07-28?this page
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA end in a draw?No won
- Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2026-07-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.