Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf507b784c839d6f0749e7ad4f41fb3bf1822bb3460f626e54c18cb465d78c9bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 443.6$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 49c | 375.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 75c | 248.97$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 49c | 226.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 62c | 151.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 139.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 51c | 111$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 107$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 106.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 51c | 105.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 102.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 90.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 90.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 74.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 57c | 67.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 50c | 60.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 57.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 52c | 51.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 54c | 33.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 28.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 51c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.