Tennis · resolved market
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50dbf0ef3c550fb0634dd2ba9ae8eabbfcbf5ee7ee09b47bf09f549a6e3256e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- August Holmgrenof August Holmgren, Daniel Jade
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x521c…f4aabacked Daniel Jade | 0c | 33,153$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 368 | 48.4%178 W · 190 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniel Jade | 7c | 4,766$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.57 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Daniel Jade | 20c | 2,002$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.31 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed Daniel Jade | 20c | 1,419$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.02 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Daniel Jade | 7c | 1,282$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Daniel Jade | 19c | 1,118$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Daniel Jade | 19c | 999.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Daniel Jade | 19c | 851.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.04 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Daniel Jade | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Daniel Jade | 17c | 569.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Daniel Jade | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 12.7%26 W · 178 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Daniel Jade | 23c | 441.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed August Holmgren | 80c | 365.42$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Daniel Jade | 20c | 300.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Daniel Jade | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked August Holmgren | 80c | 296.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Daniel Jade | 14c | 294.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Daniel Jade | 18c | 285.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Daniel Jade | 12c | 249.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked August Holmgren | 80c | 206.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,065 | 57.4%611 W · 454 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Daniel Jade | 18c | 198.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Daniel Jade | 22c | 178.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Daniel Jade | 21c | 124.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Daniel Jade | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked August Holmgren | 80c | 76.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed August Holmgren | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked August Holmgren | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed August Holmgren | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked August Holmgren | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 181 | 48.1%87 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked August Holmgren | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Daniel Jade | 19c | 62.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Daniel Jade | 18c | 60.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…88dabacked August Holmgren | 77c | 56.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…596dbacked Daniel Jade | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Daniel Jade | 21c | 48.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed August Holmgren | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked August Holmgren | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…f766backed August Holmgren | 80c | 20.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked August Holmgren | 79c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…a062backed August Holmgren | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed August Holmgren | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jadethis page
- Set Handicap: Holmgren (-1.5) vs Jade (+1.5)Holmgren won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.