Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-03-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf54804f78fb78ceec5a9577e5fe231d7b6c8ba9503c18371320b20c3d4fd39f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa383…c71dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 15c | 6,874$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…150dbacked Yes | 14c | 4,999$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 14c | 3,703$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.79 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 2,431$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,845$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.62 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 14c | 1,843$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…28b8backed Yes | 14c | 1,503$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…2240backed Yes | 14c | 1,476$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,232$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 13c | 773.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…8163backed Yes | 14c | 541.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Yes | 5c | 536.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 12c | 497$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 14c | 425.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 70c | 364.6$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…d03bbacked Yes | 30c | 364.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…e910backed Yes | 14c | 362.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Yes | 15c | 348.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 13c | 232.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 14c | 222.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 218.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…582fbacked Yes | 13c | 216.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 14c | 215.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 14c | 209.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 196$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 14c | 128.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…8fefbacked Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…b718backed Yes | 15c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…84e4backed Yes | 14c | 108.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…6415backed Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Yes | 14c | 105.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 93.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1a…eda4backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…9fc6backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…4f45backed Yes | 14c | 69.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-03-18?this page
- Will SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.