Us Politics · resolved market
Will Brandon Scott win the Baltimore Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ce79f1555c8c05f86c600dc350da0883a22bc73714f84acaa570ffffe5957c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 36c | 7,754$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 60c | 3,800$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 62c | 2,523$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 37c | 2,519$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.53 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 66c | 2,242$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 67c | 1,533$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…df8ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 34c | 1,373$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.45 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…c53dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,200$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 68c | 509.06$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 64c | 485.97$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 69c | 144.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brandon Scott win the Baltimore Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Sheila Dixon win the Baltimore Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.