Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d66fd8c54101086e7e5a2c0bbc6f0d70730a77e9e0791cd85f8378e4e18595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 12c | 7,508$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.74 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 69c | 2,132$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.08 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…01cebacked No | 38c | 659.49$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 10c | 409.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e1…5c4dbacked No | 26c | 233.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 8c | 218.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 63c | 190.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes | 60c | 173.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 19c | 97.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 26c | 42.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 71c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 72c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb41…a14dbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)this page
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.