Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5da4e28e7ad9dd83cca75051b02ff01c5009026fd5d81ffce5c3466a0db5a4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409d…7789backed Yes | 2c | 844.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 352.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 323.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 158.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 17c | 158.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 14c | 122.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 21c | 99.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 92.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 22c | 92.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 17c | 89.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 83.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 80.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 18c | 65.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 72c | 58.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 57.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 50.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 73c | 46.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 39.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf053…6825backed Yes | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a631backed No | 78c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 74c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…0effbacked No | 79c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…28b5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.