Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5307030637a47ecb5bf5c6267142c5db014808eeae7845c9da1e79599bb3a848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa580…b99abacked No | 1c | 1,483$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,015$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 70c | 158.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 118.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 36c | 112.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 41c | 79.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 73.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 62c | 71.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 69.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 68.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 36c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 60c | 64.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 63.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 47c | 56.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 62c | 50.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 40c | 50.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 39c | 49.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 30c | 40.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 39.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 39.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7789backed Yes | 39c | 38.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 37.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 65c | 34.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…0effbacked No | 66c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 37c | 29.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…b2c9backed Yes | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…2b79backed No | 71c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 23.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x63b5…6ecebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 70c | 18.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked No | 71c | 15.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.