Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e5fe8cac631459917a12f24b8d5b6c24ff97fb50549104c467270fd55667ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 2,215$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 67c | 422.64$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.14 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 12c | 395.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.05 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 13c | 386.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 239.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 17c | 233.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 222.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 49c | 133.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 52c | 91.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Yes | 25c | 79.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 60.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 69c | 44.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…3b0ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…6e5dbacked Yes | 61c | 34.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 48c | 33.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 55c | 30.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 39c | 25.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 24.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 21.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.