Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40fd7d3bbda1d883e06fe17da4e77dcfc64539264522ec15f40b14639b36bb76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 77c | 851.26$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ef…93f5backed Yes | 17c | 575.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 18c | 441.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 19c | 414.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 386.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed Yes | 23c | 332.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 8c | 327.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 28c | 262.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 9c | 241.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 214.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 203.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 25c | 173.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 160.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 151.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 149.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 20c | 140.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 18c | 134.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 41c | 107.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 105.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 21c | 95.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…6230backed Yes | 16c | 88.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 16c | 82.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 79.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed Yes | 22c | 66.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 28c | 55.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 25c | 43.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 41.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 78c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 34.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…da92backed No | 79c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 28.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 77c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…9780backed No | 78c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.