Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f80ad255873c37af129a12bad392f269e2f73999e18bed127e0d90209ffa06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,288$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.9 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 516.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 11c | 453.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 270.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 233.48$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 43c | 231.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 230.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 223.92$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 188.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 180.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 175.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 129.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 124.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 117.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 113.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 100.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 92.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 35c | 78.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbd…89efbacked Yes | 38c | 68.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 68.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 66.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 66.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…ac60backed Yes | 37c | 57.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 56.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 54.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 48.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 33c | 46.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 32c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 42.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 36c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 62c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.