Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af98adb9063f335bffafaf53bbe981a5628f296b997dfe759fa2a7ad1da1dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,848$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.34 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 41c | 963.68$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 718.21$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 668.74$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 360.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 54c | 339.7$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 335.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 332.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 79c | 326.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 27c | 253.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 247.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 12c | 238.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 218.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 209.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 52c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 196.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 185.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 44c | 184.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 178.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 174.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 35c | 173.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 166.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 142.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 140.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 127.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 127.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 50c | 125.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 125.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 124.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 40c | 114.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 111.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 107.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 101.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 38c | 90.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 34c | 87.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 83.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 32c | 83.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 80.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 77.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 75c | 71.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 65.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 63.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 61.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 66c | 60.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 60.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 41c | 60.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 43c | 54.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…58e7backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 21c | 47.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 39c | 46.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 43.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 43.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 28c | 42.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 41c | 41.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…25c9backed Yes | 36c | 41.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 40.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 44c | 39.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 38c | 39.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 48c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 37.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 37.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 38c | 37.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 36.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 36.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 67c | 36.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 36.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 34c | 35.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 33.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 70c | 33.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…ba8fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 47c | 30.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 67c | 29.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 53c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…7f94backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 73c | 23.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 48c | 21.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 55c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf00backed No | 67c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.