MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf602462f4def9e8f1e62ff7856cebf0cf4fe14ad8842797b3de525aec1f8a149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…13c1backed Texas Rangers | 11c | 287.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 22c | 189.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 183.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 18c | 159.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 17c | 95.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 21c | 88.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 55.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 32.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.