MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3139f47c9c501aa0623a464581aa7db9c7fb7b5ba861b1229723d3baf6c85f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,999.98 | 554 | 53.2%295 W · 259 L | +22.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 49c | 85,734$42,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,724.57 | 446 | 46.9%209 W · 237 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 55c | 33,601$18,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,395.56 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 24,801$11,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,458.58 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 17,378$8,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,141.47 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 15,712$7,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,085.85 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 52c | 15,044$7,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,823.06 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 2,628$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.87 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Under | 50c | 2,083$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.3 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 48c | 1,562$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 1,528$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.9 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,484$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.87 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 48c | 937.5$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 809.9$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.08 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 60c | 703.77$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Under | 49c | 666$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 51c | 620$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 617.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 56c | 592.98$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.94 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 51c | 537.43$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.09 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Under | 49c | 319.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 51c | 291.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 252.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 248.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 50c | 194.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 167.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 50c | 140.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 88.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 613 | 49.1%301 W · 312 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 52c | 87.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 52c | 86.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 51c | 66.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 363 | 43%156 W · 207 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 52c | 63.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 52c | 49.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,044 | 48.9%511 W · 533 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 39.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 51c | 38.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 37.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 51c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 52c | 23.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 58c | 22.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 52c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 337 | 46.6%157 W · 180 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.