MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733f01af27fc3c5891ec2987adbc6a301b561f95db3247b4bbd68866c1711ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,002$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 616$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 49c | 594.1$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.46 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 581.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 563.84$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 55c | 295.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 19c | 234$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 125.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 94.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 81.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 32c | 72.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 80c | 66.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 40c | 60.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 50c | 54.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 50c | 51.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 56c | 45.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Over | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 53c | 26.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 50c | 22.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.