TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Asian League · resolved market

Beijing Guoan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: Liaoning Tieren FC O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,538 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204a…a4eabacked Under13c1,963$255 inLost-$255.250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over66c557.61$368 inWon+$189.5610158.4%59 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over67c506.28$339 inWon+$167.0711849.2%58 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under33c488.1$161 inLost-$161.072,39737.8%905 W · 1,492 L-3.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under34c473.36$161 inLost-$160.525,91046.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L+50.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under34c261.5$89 inLost-$88.911,61736.3%587 W · 1,030 L-34.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over66c227.21$150 inWon+$77.253852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under16c177$28 inLost-$28.389339.8%37 W · 56 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+50.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over66c33.03$22 inWon+$11.231,65150.9%840 W · 811 L+5.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over58c20$12 inWon+$8.43666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.