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Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Liaoning Tieren FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Liaoning Tieren FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,258 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Guoan FC11c4,172$440 inLost-$440.346,02846.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L+50.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Beijing Guoan FC8c1,237$95 inLost-$95.111,36545.5%621 W · 744 L+14.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Liaoning Tieren FC69c1,150$799 inWon+$351.0610757%61 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Beijing Guoan FC33c729$240 inLost-$240.151,80436.6%660 W · 1,144 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Liaoning Tieren FC71c299.97$213 inWon+$86.9959046.6%275 W · 315 L-20.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Liaoning Tieren FC71c211.24$150 inWon+$61.263852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Liaoning Tieren FC74c135.14$100 inWon+$35.146765.7%44 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Beijing Guoan FC26c115.34$30 inLost-$30.382,61237.8%988 W · 1,624 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Beijing Guoan FC27c77.4$21 inLost-$20.918644.6%83 W · 103 L-0.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Liaoning Tieren FC70c70$49 inWon+$2114744.9%66 W · 81 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b7a…3ce8backed Liaoning Tieren FC67c26.87$18 inWon+$8.874759.6%28 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Liaoning Tieren FC71c25$18 inWon+$7.252,07654.2%1,126 W · 950 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Liaoning Tieren FC72c20.83$15 inWon+$5.831181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95ba…a260backed Liaoning Tieren FC64c18.68$12 inWon+$6.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3b…8f52backed Liaoning Tieren FC66c16.68$11 inWon+$5.681844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Liaoning Tieren FC79c14.2$11 inWon+$2.9811654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.